"TOC maps out your initiative through 6 stages:
- Identifying long-term goals
- Backwards mapping and connecting the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that goal and explaining why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
- Identifying your basic assumptions about the context.
- Identifying the interventions that your initiative will perform to create your desired change.
- Developing indicators to measure your outcomes to assess the performance of your initiative.
- Writing a narrative to explain the logic of your initiative."
http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/#5
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